When to split my first hive

This is what I do, no other choice really. But - if you lean a leafy branch on the front of the hive so you basically obstruct the entrance without totally blocking it, it forces the bees to reorient upon exit that day and the next. (Credit goes to Michael Bush for that trick). I suppose if you worked on this later in the day, closer to dusk, there would be fewer bees still out that would be likely to go back to their original hive.

If they have some honey & pollen stores and there’s a good flow on, fewer foragers won’t be as big of an issue.