I’ve been doing a few sums based on what I recently read. Apparently about 1% of a colony dies each day. They say that a queen can lay up to 3,000 eggs per day.
What if we work on a colony of 40,000 bees. That means that 400 bees die each day. Say if we assume that the queen will lay 1,000 eggs each day. That is an increase of 600 bees each day. That means that in one month the population will swell to 58,000. In 2 months, it will swell to 76,000.
No wonder colonies buildup to swarming strength, a mere 2 months after swarming.